The issue isn’t really with the mining, it’s the refining technology. China spent decades investing into figuring out how to do this and perfecting this tech. The West can’t replicate that overnight regardless of how much money they throw at the problem.

yeah looks like a hard paywall, archive doesn’t have it

Obviously, I don’t have a crystal ball either, so I’m just drawing conclusions based on what we see happening. I definitely think that China is doing all it can to ensure stability, and it’s always important to keep in mind that Americans aren’t the only ones with agency here.

My personal view is that the war on Iran is a miscalculation in the grand scheme of things. The key reason being that the US clearly doesn’t have escalatory dominance here. It’s one thing for the US to be able to decide how much pressure they apply, and then ease off if things become inconvenient. But Iran is setting the pace, and this is clearly hurting the US and their vassals as well.

In fact, it does appear that the damage to American vassals might be the greatest because BRICS countries can still get oil from Russia and Iran, as well as renewables from China. It’s Europe, Japan, occupied Korea, and Philippines that are suffering the most right now.

In terms of AI, I think it’s really about being able to aggregate huge volumes of data and identify patterns in it. The whole AGI thing is a bit of a red herring, and I don’t think it’s actually that important. It’s really just pattern analysis. If an AI system can spot a correlation between different data streams, then it can alert a human to it, and they can take over from there. But spotting a pattern in an ocean of data is the really hard part.

Right, and once you step out of the capitalist mindset you realize that you can still enjoy things without them being practical or profitable. People still play chess, even though computers can do it better.

I’d argue that it is objectively the case that the West, and especially the US, is the face of fascism on the global stage. So, Hitler analogy here is quite apt in my opinion.

In terms of industry, I completely agree that the US is a shadow of its former self, and has no real hope of catching up to China. But we also have to keep in mind that the US is fundamentally a destructive force, and their goal isn’t so much to catch up with China, but rather to knee cap the competition. The area where AI systems can play a huge role is in data analysis. If you can do reliable predictions further into the future regarding things like logistics, then you’re in a position to outplay your opponents because you can to plan more steps ahead.

For a concrete example, the current war on Iran is largely viewed as a blunder. But it’s also possible that the US is playing a nefarious game here to put pressure on the BRICS and sow chaos by disrupting the global economy. They know there’s going to be blowback for them as well, and that American public wouldn’t support it, so it’s easier to sell it as a misadventure rather than intentional policy. But it’s the kind of action that the empire is still very much capable of, which will have a huge impact on the world. If they can use AI systems to find vulnerabilities in the global economy, and apply pressure strategically that makes them a lot more dangerous.

O7

And if you look at science funding in the EU, Canada, or Australia it’s a drop in a bucket compared to US and China. So if you want to work on interesting stuff, you basically have to go to China now.

I’m beginning to think that maybe we don’t live in the worst possible timeline after all

Indeed, this would be monumental if it happens.

Yup, that’s exactly how I’m reading it. Third party regulators also sound like a way to try and ban Chinese models.

https://www.spf.org/en/units_japan-us-and-security-studies/document-detail062.html

Yeah, the rare eartths are the elephant in the room. Even under the most aggressive diversification scenarios China is projected to have 80% of the global refining capacity into 2040. I did a deep dive into the whole thing a little while back https://dialecticaldispatches.substack.com/p/the-bifurcated-market

I do think the underlying factor is that the bigger models are simply not economically viable at least not with energy costs in the US. And since it’s pretty clear they’re nowhere close to AGI, the investors are likely starting to get cold feet too. So, this seems like a plausible plan to quietly admit they’re hitting limits of what this tech can do, and try to get Chinese models banned in the US.

At this point I don’t think any of that matters. Companies like Huawei are already making domestic chips and the latest GLM was trained entirely without using any Nvidia chips. DeepSeek has also been moving to Chinese chips last I read. All the US attempts to slow China down have backfired so far because China recognizes the strategic importance of this tech and they’re putting state level resources behind it. In the short term, China will still be able to source the tech it needs through intermediaries, but in a few years they’re going to be entirely self sufficient.

There’s also the flip side here which is that China controls a lot of key inputs like rare earths which they have been quietly cutting off. It doesn’t matter if the US can design better chips if they can’t actually produce them.

incidentally, sound proofing is the reason why putting carpets on walls was a popular thing in the Soviet bloc

When I was in HK and Malaysia over the winder, I noticed how AC was blasted everywhere indoors, especially in public places. It got me curious and that’s how I learned about AC being used to dry out the air to combat mold.

And with removing heat wording I think they just mean that instead of blasting cold air actively through the space as you do with AC, instead they just use cold surfaces to passively cool the environment.

I’m guessing it’s more of what’s more easily available. It’s likely that pressurizing the caves might be cheaper than creating the hydro infrastructure, and water availability might also be a concern in the area. What’s great about China is that they always take a broad spectrum approach to every problem, and apply different types of solutions in different contexts.

Europe continuing to shoot itself in the foot and then whinging about it will never stop being hilarious.

That’s the whole from each according to their ability part of communism though. Everyone contributes at the level they are able to do.

Seems like they are on track for that, but the other thing could be that the liberal center in Europe collapses as we’re already seeing starting to happen in France and Germany.