• 5 Posts
  • 24 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 29th, 2023

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  • senkora@lemmy.ziptoCurated Tumblr@sh.itjust.worksmoon's an allergen
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    10 days ago

    The number of allergic people in a population of size N can be modeled as a Binomial(N, p) distribution, where p is the probability that any individual person is allergic.

    The maximum likelihood estimate for p when we observe 1 allergic person out of 12 is just 1/12, or 8.33%. This is our best guess if we had to name an exact number.

    We can get a 95% confidence interval on the value of p using the Clopper-Pearson method with the following R code:

    > binom.test(x=1, n=12, p=1/12)
    …
    95 percent confidence interval:
     0.002107593 0.384796165

    So we know with 95% confidence that the probability that any individual person is allergic to moon dust is with the range 0.21% and 39%.

    Yeah, okay, that’s pretty useless. I agree with them…




  • It’s a risk management strategy where you only do checks afterwards.

    “Trust” means that you don’t make processes wait on passing checks before proceeding, because that would be expensive and/or slow.

    “Verify” means that you have a separate process that comes through and runs checks afterwards, maybe on only some of the things you trusted, to catch issues.

    It’s ideal when you have high-volume and/or low-latency processes where failures are low stakes but you still want to catch systemic issues eventually.

    It’s related to the idea that “the optimal amount of fraud is non-zero”.



  • I received an actual email requesting a donation from the “Harris Victory Fund” two hours ago.

    Here’s the fine print from the email on where the money would go:

    The first $41,300/$15,000 from a person/multicandidate committee (“PAC”) will be allocated to the DNC. The next $3,300/$5,000 from a person/PAC will be allocated to Harris for President’s Recount Account. The next $510,000/$255,000 from a person/PAC will be split equally among the Democratic state parties from these states: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, and WY. Any additional funds will be allocated to the DNC, subject to applicable contribution limits.






  • senkora@lemmy.ziptoCurated Tumblr@sh.itjust.worksAmerican cheese
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    10 months ago

    IMO the ideal thing to do for hamburgers, mac and cheese, and grilled cheeses (the three foods that I would consider using American cheese for) is this:

    Half american cheese for meltiness, half gruyere or other aged flavorful cheese for flavor.

    A lot of modern recipes suggest that approach and it has worked well for me.





  • This is just about possible in NYC if you 1) work in a high-rise by a station 2) commute during peak times with frequent trains 3) live in a high-rise by a station.

    For example: Downtown Brooklyn or Exchange Place high-rise <=> WTC.

    The other option would be to live within walking distance. A <20 minute walking distance to a downtown or midtown office is reasonable.






  • I hate the capslock thing. I sometimes feel like I’m the only person who regularly uses capslock (for C macro names and SQL when programming, but also for typing acronyms).

    I don’t mind the function key thing. Even from memory I can say that in a browser F5 = refresh and F11 = fullscreen. But kids probably are less likely to know those these days so a label could be helpful.